Canada’s 2025 federal election delivered a reversal of fortunes for Liberals under the shadow of Trump. Canadians elected a Liberal minority government under former Central Banker, Mark Carney. It followed a campaign in which polling had predicted a Liberal majority. While the Liberals managed to hold government, it came at the expense of a dramatic collapse in the NDP, a left voting base typically split over multiple parties coalesced under the Liberals. The election was triggered in large part by Trump’s re-election and growing discomfort with populist rhetoric, threats to sovereignty and Trudeau’s resignation.

The unexpected results cut short years of Conservative momentum. During the campaign the Liberals had largely avoided social issues, while the Conservatives highlighted their approach to trans Canadians. Despite opposition to the use of culture war politics, and high-profile efforts from queer organizers like Drag the Vote, and Vote with Pride, queer issues fell to the background, overshadowed by Trump-era trade pressure, sovereignty threats and the cost of living.

“This is ludicrous. The Conservative Party of Canada platform only mentions women four times – with three of those mentions related to an anti-trans policy pledge. This isn’t what Canadians want or need from our politicians or political parties,” Fae Johnstone, Executive Director of Queer Momentum.

As the dust settles from elections, the now governing Liberals under Prime Minister Carney and his minority government will have to navigate how to pass legislation without enough votes. Although he may find allies in passing social policy with the scant 7 NDP MPs, they may be hesitant to get back into bed with the Liberals. The new government may need to find allies elsewhere across the aisle, especially to pass confidence votes such as the budget.

What the Liberals consider operational costs will be under increased scrutiny. The Liberal platform reaffirmed limited LGBTQ2S+ support funding with promises including: (Liberal Platform)

• Establish a new in vitro fertilization (IVF) program.
  Provides up to $20,000 for a single standard cycle of IVF treatment.
• Maintain Funding for Security of Pride Festivals

  Continue working with Fierte Canada Pride to distribute funding for the security needs of Pride events. (FCP 2024 statement)

• Additional Funding for LGBTQI+ International Assistance Program

  The funding will support LGBTQI individuals facing prosecution abroad, additionally they will expand the Rainbow Refugee Assistance Partnership (Press release on program)

• Make permanent the 2SLGBTQI+ Community Capacity Fund:
  The fund supports community organizations and networks. (The Capacity Fund)
• Expand the Court Challenges Program to protect constitutional rights.

While the Liberals also committed to “Stand up for the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms,” their ability to intervene, especially on provincial uses of the Notwithstanding Clause, is in question. Bloc Québécois support will be key to sustaining the minority government, and Quebec’s own historic use of the Clause may limit federal appetite for confrontation over trans rights policies in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The recent election highlighted that Canadians are split. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will lead a caucus emboldened by significant gains in key working-class ridings. However, the election, and looming presence of Trump ignited a debate about his rhetoric. What happens next for the Conservatives remains to be seen, and where populism and culture war topics will sit among a broader and younger Conservative voting base, and their progressive conservative provincial parties will be a challenge for the now Conservative leader.

Queer Momentum took a leadership role this election to advocate for queer Canadians. “Together, we powered a queer election campaign on a scale Canada has never seen before,” they explained. Among their efforts is a significant outreach effort including hosting 70+ local events, and rallying more than 200 organizations.

Most notable is how they tapped into an extensive network of over 250 drag queens. Often understood to be social connectors within each of their own communities, with their own local social followings. Essentially, Queer Momentum tapped into the networkers and connectors in the community to motivate and mobilize the queer vote.

They also claimed to have over 150 candidates signed onto their pledge to uphold queer rights. In a follow up newsletter we will examine how many of these candidates were successfully elected.